On 10 October, the National Electoral Commission published the electoral roll for the presidential election scheduled for 13 November. According to our information, 704,089 voters have obtained their biometric voting cards, while another 160,000 registered voters have yet to receive theirs.

According to the roll, 412,617 voters are registered in three of the six regions of Somaliland where the ruling Kulmiye party – whose candidate is Musa Bihi Abdi – is dominant.

In the three remaining regions, which have 291,472 voters, Kulmiye is hoping to obtain the vote of 147,440 people. Leading figures in the party are already predicting that Musa Bihi Abdi will emerge victorious with 55 % of the votes, with the Wadani candidate Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi, known as Cirro, picking up 40 % of the vote share and UCID‘s Feysal Ali Warabe the remaining 5 %.

If Kulmiye does win as expected, it remains to be seen whether Musa Bihi Abdi will form a government on his own or will allocate the defence portfolio to UCID and the finance portfolio to Wadani. But if Wadani loses, there is a fear that it will call for insurrection and a rapprochement with Somalia.