The old order is changing, but the new one is yet to take shape, and this is expected to firm up after the Hiiraan/Middle Shabelle formation process. Much will depend on how Presiden Hassan Sheikh kicks the ball, and whether he scores with a disillusioned state process in the country.
Even as existing alliances are loosening and new formations are yet to crystallise, all eyes are now fixed on the 2016 political games, which will take place on the next 13 months!
The Somali Leadership Forum does not come across as a cohesive entity; and Mr. Sharif Hassan has floated the idea of forming a federal front. While a regrouping of political forces has started to take place, and this week’s events in Garowe are pointers in that direction, Puntland is expected to catalyse the new political order and the shape of things to come.The week started with Mr. Ahmed Madobe — now he is clearly making a pitch for national space — roaring from Mogadishu’s Maaweelo politics, taking on the ruling Damul Jadid whose partner he was till a few weeks ago. The most significant aspect of his speech was his declared intention to bring together Federal Member States and create a federal front in the country, which, he said, could not be run from Mogadishu. And that state capitals must have a say in what transpires on the national stage.
As far as Mogadishu is concerned, Garowe has already quit the Mogadishu politics. Puntland has let it be known that it is distancing itself from the SFG. It has declared that it would be supporting the Al Sunna Wal Jameeca led resolution in Central regions against Galmudug in multibrand retail, which could hugely embarrass the Puntland leadership.
At a time, when everyone is in touch with everyone else, the ties of both the existing fronts are now loosening, in what has become a highly fluid political situation.
Even if a federal front is formed as a pre—2016 (s)elections, there is nothing to prevent the Federal Member States from shifting sides for the coming months, if the situation so warrants it.
In short, the SFG doubt that the Puntland and Jubbaland’s political regrouping will help their version of State formation and Constitutional review process. And “[President Hassan] still has his own right-wing agenda.”
Mahad Sheikh Ali Gelle; can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Source: Horseed Media