Is Somalia on the Verge of a military Offensive Against one of its States?


Reports close to Somalia’s Villa Somalia disclose that a massive redeployment of troops barracks in and outside the provincial capital of the Jubaland Federal State is underway.

In what looks like a borrowed battle-order copy of the Ethiopian federal government’s use of force against the Tigray regional government – a member of its federal system – for rejecting to swallow all of Addis Ababa’s directives as is, Mogadishu is exerting pressure on Kismayo.

Ahmed Madoobe, the president of the federal state, has accused the federal government and its President, Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Faramajo’, of carving off the largest region of the regional government – Gedo – for direct federal control.

President Madoobe, voicing his doubts of the federal government’s objective, believes that no election would be possible in the state as long as the central government has full control over one of the two towns earmarked for election/selection of MPs – Garbaharrey of Gedo.

Departing from the usual double-edged words of diplomacy, Madoobe called the federal troops deployed in Gedo since last year a militia loyal only to Mogadishu at today’s SPF meeting between Somalia and its federal states, on one side, and the international community, on the other.

Madoobe’s pointed observation made the federal Prime Minister come up with a sharp rejoinder. He demanded of the member state to recant his statement.

In line with the resolution of the last September meeting between the federal government of Mogadishu and its five member states of Puntland, Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Galmuduig and Southwest. ‘elections’ will be held in two towns in each of the federal member states.

Jubaland’s case appears in that one of its two towns appears to be sequestered by the federal government President, Farmajo, in order to influence the outcome from Garbaharrey – which he hails from.

Puntland, in empathy of the Jubaland concern, is holding back too on the elections.

Donald Yamamoto, the US Ambassador, without directly saying so urged all parties to stick to the elections schedule which may or may not be another way of saying that the federal state should withdraw the troops in question. His words may also mean the other way around telling Madoobe to stop whining.

Instead, though, Mogadishu – as sources indicate – is reinforcing its military might not only in Gedo but all over the member state areas including Madobe’s seat Kismayu.

Somalia sent the Kenyan Ambassador to Mogadishu, Lucas Tumbo, home to Nairobi for ‘consultation’ with his government over Somalia suspicion of Kenya meddling in its internal affairs. The accusation and the ‘expulsion’ of the envoy rested on Mogadishu accusing Nairobi of encouraging Ahmed Madoobe’s stated intransigence and continued stand on the Gedo issue.

Federal Ethiopia troops which were not part of the AMISOM contingent largely controlled Gedo on the behest of President Farmajo before they were suddenly pulled out to be redeployed at the active battlefront on the Tigray region to help decide the conflct on Abiy’s favour.



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